This Week’s Market Commentary

This week brings us the release of four relevant economic reports in addition to another FOMC meeting and two relevant Treasury auctions. With all of the volatility in the markets of the past two weeks, it is difficult to say whether this will be an active week for mortgage rates. Under normal circumstances, it would be. But it is hard to label any week as active if comparing to the previous two.

The first economic data of the week is Employee Productivity and Costs data for the second quarter that will be released Tuesday morning. It will give us an indication of employee output per hour. High levels of productivity are believed to allow the economy to grow without fears of inflation. I don’t see this being a big mover of mortgage pricing, but since it is the only data of the day it may influence rates slightly during morning trading. Analysts are currently expecting to see a decline in productivity of 0.6% and a 2.2% jump in labor costs. A stronger than expected productivity reading and a smaller than expected increase in costs could help improve bonds, leading to lower mortgage rates Tuesday.

The FOMC meeting is a single-day event that will be held Tuesday and will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET. It is expected to yield no change to key interest rates. Usually, the post-meeting comments seem to have more of an influence on the markets than the rate adjustments themselves, or a lack of one in many cases. Look for the statement to lead to volatility during afternoon trading if it hints at what the Fed’s next move may be and when it will come. Market participants will be looking for any indication of a move to help boost economic activity. If the statement does not give us new information, mortgage rates will probably move little after its release.
There is no important economic data on the calendar for Wednesday. June’s Trade Balance repo
rt will be released early Thursday morning. It gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit but is the week’s least important report and likely will have little impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. Analysts are expecting to see a $48.0 billion deficit, but it will take a wide variance to directly influence mortgage pricing.

Friday has the remaining two pieces of economic data, one of which is highly important to the markets and mortgage rates. July’s Retail Sales data is that report. This data is very important to the financial markets and mortgage rates because it helps us measure consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any data related to it can cause a fair amount of movement in the markets. A smaller than expected increase would indicate that consumers are spending less than previously thought, potentially further slowing the economic recovery. This is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates as it eases inflation concerns and makes long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors. Current forecasts are calling for an increase of 0.5%.

The last report of the day will come from the University of Michigan, who will release their Index of Consumer Sentiment for August at 9:55 AM. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, then consumers are more apt to make large purchases. This helps fuel consumer spending and economic growth. By theory, a drop in confidence should boost bond prices, but this data is considered moderately important and carries much less significance than the Retail Sales report does. Analysts are expecting to see a reading of 62.5, which would be a decline from July’s revised reading.
Also worth noting are two important Treasury auctions this week. The sale of 10-year Notes will be held Wednesday while 30-year Bonds will be sold Thursday. We often see some weakness in bonds ahead of the sales as the firms participating prepare for them. However, as long as they are met with decent demand from investors, the firms usually buy them back. This tends to help recover any presale losses. But, if the sales are met with a lackluster interest from investors- particularly international buyers, the bond market may move lower after the results are posted and mortgage rates may move higher. Those results will be announced at 1:00 PM each sale day.

Overall, it is difficult to label one particular day as the most important. Friday’s sales data is the most important economic report, but Tuesday’s FOMC meeting has the potential to cause plenty of movement in the markets and mortgage pricing also. Tomorrow will also be interesting, especially considering the size of the sell-off in bonds Friday. I would not be surprised to see that negative tone extend into tomorrow’s bond trading and mortgage rates. I suspect the FOMC meeting will not have as much of an influence on mortgage rates as one may expect, but the markets can react wildly to a single word or omission of a word in the statement, so we need to be cautious. This is certainly another week that continuous contact with your mortgage professional is highly recommended if you are still floating an interest rate.

This Week’s Market Commentary

There are four relevant reports scheduled for release this week that are likely to affect mortgage pricing, but it may end up being news out of Washington that may have the biggest impact on the markets and mortgage rates. As of this evening, there appears to be much more progress being made on the debt ceiling issue than we have seen yet. There actually have been rumors of an agreement in general between the House and Senate, which could mean a finished deal by Tuesday’s default deadline is possible.

The stock markets took a beating last week, even before the surprisingly weak GDP reading Friday morning. The potential for a default on our debt and the credit downgrade that would have followed was expected to have a huge negative impact on our economy. That led to stock selling most of the week, and support in the bond market, although we did see softness in bonds at times also. The big day for bonds came Friday after the 2nd Quarter GDP reading fell well short of forecasts and a significant downward revision to the 1st Quarter reading fueled a sizable rally in bonds that gained momentum during afternoon trading. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note fell below 3.80%, causing many lenders to revise rates even lower late Friday.

Friday’s rally caught us off guard a bit. That is one way of describing it. Another is to use the word unjustified. We certainly got bond-friendly news out of the GDP report, but I think we saw more flight-to-safety buying than long-term buying due to weak economic conditions. That is evident by the afternoon surge in bonds Friday that pushed yields below recent levels. The flight-to-safety is a bonus for mortgage shoppers closing in the very near future, but extremely problematic for borrowers that need a couple weeks or months before they go to closing. Time and time again (duplicate that many more times), we see gains from several trading sessions of flight-to-safety buying unwind in a single day of trading. In other words, rates can give back last week’s gains, and some, much quicker than they were able to capture them as soon as stocks appear ready to head higher. A resolution to the debt ceiling issue is definitely a strong enough event to do this. If the threat of a credit downgrade and default dissolves, I would not be surprised to see a couple hundred point gain in the Dow over a single, maybe two, trading sessions. That would likely cause most of the flight-to-safety funds to shift away from bonds and back into stocks. And a noticeable upward move in mortgage rates.

In addition to the debt ceiling topic, we do have a couple of extremely important economic reports for the markets to digest. The first important release is the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index for July late tomorrow morning. This index measures manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives about business conditions during the month and is considered to be of fairly high importance to the markets. A reading above 50.0 means that more surveyed executives felt that business improved last month than those who said it had worsened.

Wednesday morning brings us the release of June’s Factory Orders data at 10:00 AM ET. It helps us measure manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for both durable and non-durable goods during the month of June. It is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders report that tracks orders for big-ticket items only. Since a significant portion of the data was released last week, this report likely will not have as big of an impact on the markets as last week’s did. Analysts are expecting to see a decline in new orders of approximately 1.0%. A larger than expected drop would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage pricing.

There is no relevant monthly or quarterly economic news scheduled for release Thursday, but Friday is a different story. The most important piece of data this week and arguably each month is the monthly Employment report. This report gives us the U.S. unemployment rate, number of jobs added or lost during the month and the average hourly earnings reading for July. The ideal situation for the bond market is rising unemployment, a sizable loss of jobs and little change in earnings.

While the preliminary reading to the GDP is arguably the single most important report in general, it is posted quarterly rather than monthly like the Employment report. Friday’s report is expected to show that the unemployment rate slipped 0.1% to 9.1% last month while approximately 78,000 jobs were added to the economy. The unemployment rate probably will not be much of a factor unless it moved much more than the 0.1% that is expected. However, due to the importance of these readings, we will most likely see quite a bit of volatility in the markets and mortgage pricing Friday morning if they vary from forecasts.

Overall, I am expecting to see another extremely active week for mortgage rates. I think that the most important day is tomorrow due to the debt ceiling crisis coming to a head and the ISM index being posted. Friday is also a key day with the monthly Employment report being released. We may see some pressure in bonds mid to late week ahead of Friday’s employment numbers (assuming Washington puts the debt ceiling issue to bed), but we also need to watch the stock markets for significant moves that can influence bond trading. We are getting key economic data during a period of great uncertainty about our economy with a major national crisis climaxing at the same time. If still floating an interest rate, I would definitely maintain constant contact with my mortgage professional. And hold on tight, it’s going to be quite an interesting week!

This Week's Market Commentary

There are seven reports scheduled for release this week may affect mortgage pricing in addition to two relevant Treasury auctions, but despite all that, the current debt ceiling issue may take center stage. With no data scheduled for release today, the stock markets and updates out of Washington will drive the markets.

Friday evening’s collapse of talks on the topic happened after the markets closed, so it will be interesting to see how we fare this morning. I suspect it is going to be ugly if significant progress is not made in Washington. At posting time of this report, the Japan indexes are showing losses, but not by a concerning amount.

The economic data starts Tuesday when the Conference Board posts their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July at 10:00 AM ET. This index measures consumer sentiment, giving us an idea of consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more confident in their own financial situations, they are apt to make large purchases in the near future. This is important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If the CCI reading is weaker than expected, meaning that consumers were less confident than thought, we may see bond prices rise and mortgage rates drop Tuesday. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of 56.0, which would be a lower reading than June’s 58.5 and indicate consumers are becoming less comfortable with their finances.

June’s New Home Sales will also be released late Tuesday morning. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. Analysts are expecting it to show a small increase in sales of newly constructed homes, indicating that the housing sector gained some strength. That would be considered negative news for bonds, but since this data tracks only 15% of all home sales it usually has little impact on the bond market and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

Wednesday brings us two events that are relevant to mortgage rates. The first will come from the Commerce Department when they post June’s Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. Current forecasts are currently calling for an increase in new orders of 0.4% from May to June. This data gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. A stronger than expected number may lead to higher mortgage rates Wednesday morning. If it reveals a decline in new orders, mortgage rates should drop because it would indicate manufacturing weakness. It should be noted though that this data is known to be extremely volatile from month to month, so a minor difference between forecasts and the actual reading may not move mortgage rates much.

The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report Wednesday afternoon. This report is named simply after the color of its cover, but it is considered to be important to the Fed when determining monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. It details economic activity and conditions by region throughout the U.S. Since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony to Congress two weeks ago gave us a recent update, I don’t think we will see any significant surprises in this report. Therefore, we will likely see little movement in mortgage rates Wednesday afternoon as a result of this report.

There is no relevant monthly or quarterly data scheduled for release Thursday, but there are three releases scheduled to be posted Friday morning. The first is the preliminary reading of the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is considered to be the best indicator of economic activity. It is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and usually has a great deal of influence on the financial markets. This reading is arguably the single most important we get regularly. Current forecasts are estimating that the economy grew at a 1.6% annual rate during the second quarter. A faster pace will probably hurt bond prices, leading to higher mortgage rates Friday. But a smaller than expected reading would likely fuel a bond market rally and lead to lower mortgage pricing.

The second report of the day Friday is the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that measures employers’ costs for wages and benefits. It is considered to be an important measurement of wage inflation and can impact the bond market and mortgage rates if it varies much from forecasts. If it shows a rapid increase, raising inflation concerns, the bond market may drop and mortgage rates rise. It is expected to reveal an increase of 0.5%, but the GDP reading likely will have more of an influence on the markets and mortgage rates.

Friday’s third piece of data is the final revision to July’s University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment that will help us measure consumer optimism about their own financial situations. As with Tuesday’s CCI release, this data is considered important because rising consumer confidence usually translates into higher levels of spending. This adds fuel to the economic recovery and is looked at as bad news for bonds. Friday’s release is an update to the preliminary reading we saw two weeks ago, so unless we see a drastic revision to the preliminary estimate, I think the markets will probably shrug this news off.

Also worth mentioning are a couple of Treasury auctions that may affect bond trading and mortgage rates this week. The two most important are Wednesday’s 5-year Note and Thursday’s 7-year Note sales. Results of this week’s auctions will be posted 1:00 PM ET each day. If investor interest is strong, we can expect the broader bond market to rally and mortgage rates to move lower. However, lackluster demand could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Unless progress is made on the debt ceiling prior to these sales, it is highly unlikely that they will go well.

Overall, I am expecting an extremely active week in the financial and mortgage markets. With several important economic reports on tap, we will likely see noticeable movement in mortgage rates more than one day. The most important report of the week is Friday’s preliminary GDP reading, making it one of the most important days of the week. But it is difficult to say which day we can expect to see the most movement in rates as several of the releases and scheduled events have the potential to influence mortgage rates. The wild card is the debt ceiling. Any news on that topic will probably heavily influence the financial and mortgage markets. Therefore, I STRONGLY recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional this week if still floating an interest rate!

This Week's Market Commentary

This week is quite light in terms of relevant economic releases and events that are relevant to mortgage rates, especially if comparing to the past couple weeks. This doesn’t mean we won’t see movement in mortgage rates, but I believe it will be a much less volatile week in the markets unless something very much unexpected happens.

There are only three economic reports scheduled for the financial and mortgage markets to digest and none of them are considered to be of high importance to the markets. Considering that the 10-year Treasury Note again fell below and closed under the benchmark 3.00% last week, we have bond market yields at a point of potential downward movement or an upward spike.

The first economic report of the week comes Tuesday morning with the release of June’s Housing Starts. This data gives us an indication of housing sector strength by tracking construction starts of new homes, but is not considered to be of high importance.

Analysts are currently expecting to see a small rise in new starts. However, I don’t see this data having much of an impact on mortgage rates Tuesday unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

The National Association of Realtors will post June’s Existing Home Sales figures late Wednesday morning. This report gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but as with all of this week’s data it is not considered highly important. Current forecasts are calling for a small increase in sales from May’s totals.

A drop in sales would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates because a weak housing sector would make it difficult for the economy to recover anytime soon. However, unless this data varies greatly from forecasts it probably will lead to only a minor change in mortgage rates.

June’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) will be posted at 10:00 AM Thursday. This Conference Board index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. While it is not a factual report, it still is considered to be of moderate importance to the bond market. It is expected to show a 0.3% increase, meaning that we may see a gain in economic activity over the next few months. A smaller rise in the index would be good news for the bond and mortgage markets.

Overall, this is a moderately significant week for the bond market and mortgage rates. With no highly important economic data to drive the markets and mortgage pricing, we likely will see the stock markets influence mortgage rates. If the major stock indexes rally, funds will probably move away from bonds, driving yields and mortgage rates higher. But weakness in stocks would fuel bond buying and lower mortgage rates for borrowers.

I am going to remain pessimistic towards rates, at least near term until the 10-year Note yield remains under 3.00% for some time. It is my opinion that we are more likely to see it move back above 3.00% before we see a new downward trend start. Accordingly, this leads me to remain cautious towards rates, at least for the time being.

This Week's Market Commentary

This week brings us the release of seven important economic reports for the bond market to digest in addition to the minutes from the last FOMC meeting, two relevant Treasury auctions and semi-annual Congressional testimony by Fed Chairman Bernanke.

Several of the economic reports are considered to be of high importance, meaning we will likely see more volatility in the financial markets and mortgage pricing over the next several days. There are also some heavily watched corporate earnings releases scheduled for the stock markets this week that can influence bond trading and therefore, mortgage pricing. In other words, we are in for a heck of a week.

The first data of the week is May’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report early Tuesday morning, which measures the size of the U.S. trade deficit. This data is not considered to be of high importance to the bond market and will not likely have an impact on mortgage rates. However, if it does vary greatly from analysts’ forecasts of a $44.0 billion deficit, we may see some movement in bond prices and possibly a slight change in mortgage pricing. This is the least important of this week’s economic data.

Also worth noting about Tuesday is the afternoon release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is a possibility of the markets reacting to them following their 2:00 PM ET release, especially if they show unexpected dissention among some of its members during discussion and voting at the last meeting or give any indication of the Fed’s possible next move with monetary policy.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release Wednesday, but Fed Chairman Bernanke will present his semi-annual update about the economy and monetary policy before Congress. He will speak before the House Financial Services Committee Wednesday and the Senate Banking Committee Thursday, each at 10:00am ET. His testimony will be broadcast and watched very closely.

Analysts and traders will be looking for the status of the economy and his expectations of future growth, particularly inflation and unemployment concerns that will lead to changes in key short-term interest rates. This should create a great deal of volatility in the markets during the prepared testimony and the question and answer session that follows. If he indicates that inflation may become a point of concern or anything that hints at rapid economic growth, we can expect to see the bond market fall and mortgage rates rise Wednesday.
We usually see the most movement in rates during the first day of this testimony as the Chairman’s prepared words for both appearances are quite similar to each other, meaning that the second day of testimony rarely gives us anything we did not hear during the first day. The general exception is something asked or answered during the Q&A portion of the second day’s appearance.

Wednesday also starts the first of the two important Treasury auctions when 10-year Notes will be sold. That sale will be followed by a 30-year Bond auction Thursday. These sales can influence market trading in bonds and possibly affect mortgage rates. If the sales are met with a strong demand from investors, particularly Wednesday’s sale, we should see afternoon improvements in bonds that could lead to downward revisions to mortgage rates. However, if concern about the amount of debt that is being sold keeps buyers on the sidelines, we may see bonds fall after results are posted at 1:00 PM ET and mortgage rates move higher those days.

In addition to the second day of testimony and the 30-year Bond auction, Thursday does have some key economic data being posted. The first is June’s Producer Price Index (PPI) from the Labor Department. It is a very important release because it measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. It is expected to show a 0.3% decline in the overall reading and a 0.2% increase in the core data reading. The core reading is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. The bond market should react quite favorably if we get weaker than expected readings, but a larger than expected rise in the core reading could send mortgage rates higher Thursday.

June’s Retail Sales report will also be posted at 8:30 AM ET Thursday morning. This data is considered to be of high importance because it measures consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so any related data is watched closely. The Commerce Department is expected to say that sales at retail establishments fell 0.2% last month. A larger than expected decline in sales could help fuel a bond rally and lead to lower mortgage rates because it would mean that the economy is likely weaker than thought.

Friday has the remaining three economic releases, beginning with what arguably is the single most important monthly report for the bond market. That is June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 AM ET, which is a mirror of Thursday’s PPI with the exception that the CPI measures inflation at the more important consumer level of the economy. Analysts have forecasted a 0.1% decline in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data. The core data is considered to be the key reading because it gives us a more stable measure of inflation. Higher than expected readings could raise inflation fears and push mortgage rates higher, while readings that fall short of forecasts should lead to lower rates Friday.

June’s Industrial Production data is the second report of the day at 9:15 AM ET. This data measures output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities, giving us an indication of manufacturing sector strength. It is expected to show a 0.2% rise in production, indicating that the manufacturing sector strengthened slightly during the month. That would basically be bad news for bonds, however, the CPI will take center stage Friday morning.

The final report of the week is the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index is released in a preliminary form each month and then followed up two weeks later with a final reading. The preliminary reading for July will be posted late Friday morning and is expected to drop slightly from June’s final reading of 71.5. This would indicate that consumers were a little less comfortable with their own financial situations this month than last month. It is believed that if consumers are confident in their own finances, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. And with consumer spending making up two-thirds of our economy, investors pay close attention to reports such as these. So, a decline in confidence would be good news for mortgage rates because it means many consumers will probably delay making a large purchase in the immediate future, limiting economic activity.
Also worth noting is the fact that tomorrow kicks off the corporate earnings reporting season when Alcoa posts their quarterly results. Market participants are anxiously waiting for these announcements to see how the economy is affecting earnings. Just as important as this past quarter’s results are their forward-looking estimates. If revenue, earnings and projections from the big-named companies exceed expectations, stocks will likely rally.

This would make bonds less appealing to investors and lead to bond selling. But if results are weaker than expected, indicating that the economy is stifling earnings, bonds will be more attractive to investors as stocks slide. That could help boost bond prices and help lower mortgage rates.

Overall, it is difficult to try to label one particular day as the most important this week. It is easy to say the least important will likely be tomorrow, but every other day has important data or other events that can cause significant movement in the markets and mortgage rates. The single most important report for the bond market is the CPI Friday morning, but Thursday’s data is not far behind. Wednesday’s Bernanke testimony could be huge also. The week’s corporate earnings also have the potential to heavily influence bond trading and mortgage rates via stock market swings. Therefore, it is highly recommended to maintain fairly constant contact with your mortgage professional this week if still floating an interest rate.